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A closer look at Hamilton’s title chances

After an exciting race in Russia, we had a mathematical look at the chances of Lewis Hamilton losing the Formula 1 World Drivers Championship as reporting has suggested that with Ferrari’s renewed form the Championship is all but his at this stage.

For this article we will only take the top 5 drivers in consideration as the Nr. 6 (Pierre Gasly) already lost all mathematical chances to win the championship, so even if he wins all upcoming races and Lewis Hamilton does not finish in any of them he still can not accumulate the points needed.

So currently, Lewis Hamilton is leading the championship with 322 points scored over the 16 races we had so far in the 2019 season. There are 5 more races to go, meaning that a driver can score 130 points in the best case scenario (winning the race and setting the fastest lap in the race.

Valterri Bottas (Mercedes), Nr. 2 in the Championship:
On paper, he has the best chances, even though it is highly unlikely that the Mercedes AMG F1 Team will allow Bottas to upset the hierarchy. In order to stay ahead of Valtteri Bottas, Lewis Hamilton MUST score 57 points in the upcoming 5 races.

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari), Nr. 3 in the Championship:
The closest viable contender, young and hungry for wins. Charles has accumulated 215 points in this season and will do everything in his power to make his mark. This also means he has to overcome the direct battle with his teammate Sebastian Vettel who sometimes seems to enjoy a preferable treatment by the Ferrari Team. To stay ahead of Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton MUST score 23 points in the upcoming 5 races.

Max Verstappen (Red Bull), Nr. 4 in the Championship:
Very close to Charles Leclerc in the Championship even though it is clear that Charles enjoys the better car and seems to have a lot more momentum in the second part of the season.In his advantage is the absence of an inter-team battle as Max is the clear Nr. 1 driver in the Red Bull team and not under any threat of his teammate Alex Albon. In order to stay ahead of Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton MUST score 20 points in the upcoming 5 races.

Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari), Nr. 5 in the Championship:
After an engine failure causing him to retire from the Russian GP it is safe to say that Sebastian Vettel has fallen out of contention for the 2019 Formula 1 World Drivers Championship title. Mathematically it is still possible but a long shot. To stay ahead of Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton MUST score 2 points in the upcoming 5 races.

So what about the Formula 1 constructors Championship?
The constructors Championship is showing a very similar gap between Mercedes and Ferrari. Red Bull has already lost the connection and can no longer win the constructors title. For Mercedes to stay ahead of Ferrari, Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas combined MUST score 58 points in the upcoming 5 races.

Formula 1 Points scoring System:

  • 1st Place – 25 Points
  • 2nd Place – 18 Points
  • 3rd Place – 15 Points
  • 4th Place – 12 Points
  • 5th Place – 10 Points
  • 6th Place – 8 Points
  • 7th Place – 6 Points
  • 8th Place – 4 Points
  • 9th Place – 2 Points
  • 10 Place – 1 Point
  • Fastest lap during the race – 1 Point

Based on the reliability record of this season Mercedes surely seems to have the advantage with only a single race retirement for Valterri Bottas (German GP). Ferrari has had 3 retirements so far this season (Monaco and German GP’s for Charles Leclerc and today’s Russian GP for Sebastian Vettel)

On a positive note, I am sure we can conclude that the quality of Formula 1 races through the eyes of F1 fans all over the World has gone up massively since the Austrian GP.  With 5 more races to come on circuits where overtaking is possible we are looking forward to the upcoming races.

  • Photocredit: Dimitar Dilkoff / AFP
Frank van Nunen

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